BY ALI SAFAVI
On Nov. 4, the Iranian regime commemorated the 38th
anniversary of the U.S. Embassy takeover in 1979, when dozens of Americans were
taken hostage for 444 days. This year, it paraded its ballistic missiles in
front of the former U.S. Embassy in Tehran. With chants of "Death to
America," the disdain for international norms and the nuclear deal came
through loud and clear.
But that image does not represent Iran.
Today, the average Iranian citizen longs for friendship
and mutually beneficial ties with the outside world, particularly the United
States. In 1979, it was not only Americans taken hostage by a medieval
theocratic order; the Iranian people were also taken hostage and held captive
after their democratic revolution was usurped by Khomeini.
Decades later, the prospects of change in Iran are closer
and more viable than ever. Internal conditions are conducive to a fundamental
sociopolitical transformation, and the Iranian people are rising up and
demanding democracy.
At least three distinct but interrelated factors
accentuate the prospects for change:
First, the internal dynamics: The mullahs’ systemic,
pervasive mismanagement of the economy has left the Iranian people's basic
rights and demands unaddressed and out of reach. The "army of the
unemployed," a devalued currency, inflation and corruption are tied to a
host of social ills like prostitution, drug abuse and suicides.
Many thousands have been literally robbed of their life
savings after regime-affiliated financial institutions, free from accountability
and regulations, defrauded them. These companies are tied to the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), supreme leader Ali Khamenei's office and the
State Security Forces (SSF).
These people are now staging mass protests in cities
across Iran, including Tehran. Every day, thousands pour into the streets to
protest economic misconduct and injustices.
The regime is clearly frightened. Last month, tens of
thousands of people sought to stage a gathering to commemorate the birth of
Persian King Cyrus the Great (known for his respect for human rights and
freedom of expression).
The regime arrayed all its forces to stop it. A number of
the most senior IRGC commanders were hurriedly deployed to the Tomb of Cyrus.
No less than 6,000 IRGC and SSF forces were stationed there to prevent
protests.
The second important factor for change is the regime’s
loss of the all-important backing of the U.S. Sadly, the Obama administration
went out of its way to cajole and appease the "Islamic Republic
government" for eight years. Now, the new administration, rightly calling
Tehran a "dictatorship,” has afforded due respect for the Iranian people,
not their murderers.
The decision to step up restrictions on the regime,
including placing the IRGC on the terrorist list and imposing new Treasury
sanctions, marks an important departure for U.S. policy. The IRGC has long been
the regime’s backbone, controlling its security and suppression apparatus while
increasing its dominance over the Iranian economy.
The Treasury Department's sanctions are a necessary step
in dealing with the regime's suppression, terrorism and ballistic missile
programs. However, they need to be extended to individuals, companies and
entities affiliated with the IRGC, as well as to the IRGC's foreign proxies.
Today, IRGC commanders stationed in 31 provinces
throughout Iran are responsible for cracking down on protests and peaceful
assembly. These individuals should also be placed under sanctions.
Finally, the third element facilitating change is the
successful 2016 resettlement of all members of the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) from
their camp in Iraq to Albania. Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Iranian
regime had sought to physically eliminate members of this leading opposition
movement.
Those plans were foiled, and now the organized nucleus of
the opposition has been re-energized, boosting its strength and cohesiveness.
The growing social unrest inside Iran, Washington’s
increasing restrictions on the mullahs and the strengthening of the organized
opposition capable of leading popular discontent toward the overthrow of the
regime, are critical factors for change.
The time has come for the world to see the true image of
Iran; one that rejects hostage-taking and terrorism and instead champions a
non-nuclear, democratic and secular republic that respects human rights, gender
equality and free-market economics.
Democratic change in Iran is not just necessary, it is
also within reach, thanks to decades of relentless struggle and perseverance by
the Iranian people and their organized opposition movement. Like other
dictatorships, the mullahs cannot hold back the tides of change indefinitely.
This article was first published by THE HILL.
Ali Safavi
(@amsafavi) is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National
Council of Resistance of Iran, which is dedicated to the establishment of a
democratic, secular and non-nuclear republic in Iran.
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