By Poorang Novak
There are rumours that US President Donald Trump will
decertify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal on 15th October – the next
deadline for the president to inform Congress about the future of the deal. He
has to do this every 90 days.
Trump has made his disdain for the deal known. He has
called it an “embarrassment” and “one-sided” and he admitted that on the two
previous occasions when he certified Iran’s compliance, he did so reluctantly.
Under the agreement, Iran promised to freeze its nuclear
development for 15 years. In exchange for this, economic sanctions against Iran
were lifted.
However, it is not easy for Trump to decertify Iran’s
compliance when the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), has said on eight separate occasions that Iran is
complying. The other signatories of the agreement – the UK, France, Germany,
China and Russia – also all agree with the IAEA.
If Trump does decertify Iran, he will in effect be
reneging on the nuclear deal. The whole international community is waiting to
see how this will play out because the United States would be going back on its
word on a deal that had been agreed with several other countries.
The United States reneged on its deal with Libya, causing
great shame to be cast over America. The deal was made with President Muammar
Qaddafi – one of the most violent and aggressive anti-Western leaders.
Towards the end of the nineties, Qaddafi was concerned
about Libya’s isolation and wanted to normalise relations with the West. Years
of negotiations followed and Qaddafi was told that he would have to concede on
two main issues.
Firstly, he had to admit to his country’s role in the
Lockerbie disaster where a plane was downed in Scotland. Libya would have to
hand over those who were involved to Western authorities and provide financial
compensation for the families. Libya complied and sanctions were lifted.
The second condition to remove further sanctions and to
normalise relations was that Libya would need to stop developing nuclear and
mass destruction weapons. Qaddafi put a stop to it and to terrorist activities
towards the US and the West and it dodged involvement in the post 9/11 clash.
The US thus lifted further sanctions.
However, Qaddafi came under attack at home during the
anti-government “Arab Spring” and the US aided in removing him (resulting in
his death).
Back then, there was very little fuss made about the US
going back on the deal. Many said that Qaddafi would have done whatever it took
to stay in power.
North Korea commented that the US has been playing a
“bait and switch” game and that is why North Korea would never make the same
mistake as Qaddafi by giving up weapons. The concern is now that Iran is doing
the same for fear of making Qaddafi’s mistake.
However, it would be prudent for both North Korea and
Iran to also remember that the United States has a history of helping to upend
unruly regimes – think Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Serbia, Syria, Ukraine
and Yemen.
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