iran panorama

  Written by Mehdi Oghbai Six-minute read More than four months into the confrontation involving Iran and the United States, the conflict appears to have entered a decisive phase. The central question is no longer simply how much military damage either side can inflict. It is whether Tehran can turn prolonged confrontation into a political instrument of survival — or whether sustained economic isolation will expose vulnerabilities that military strikes alone have failed to exploit. The Iranian regime’s leadership has sought to portray its posture around the Strait of Hormuz as evidence of strength and strategic leverage. By threatening shipping and placing pressure on one of the world’s most important energy corridors, Tehran appears to calculate that it can eventually force Western governments to choose economic stability over confrontation. At the same time, the political and military restructuring described inside Iran points towards preparation for continued confrontation rathe...

  Fixing the Shaky Nails of the Hereditary Caliphate to Save the Sheikh and Shah Establishment Amid Intractable Crises against the Inevitable Uprising of the Iranian People By Reza Hoseani Introduction: A Hereditary Monarchy Called Velayat The transfer of power in the Velayat-e Faqih system has always been its Achilles’ heel. Ali Khamenei, who himself ascended to Khomeini’s chair through Rafsanjani’s engineering and the elimination of Ayatollah Montazeri, is now trying to repeat the same scenario but in a familial and hereditary form. Mojtaba Khamenei, a son who grew up throughout his father’s 35-year sultanate in the security shadow of the Beit, relying on a network of eulogists, interrogators and corrupt IRGC generals, today sits as “King Mojtaba” on the throne of absolute sultanate without a single day of war record, management, or clerical legitimacy. The difference in authority between him and his father is from earth to sky. Ali Khamenei came at least with a record of preside...

  By Reza Hoseani The Necessity of a Structural Change in Iran’s Governance for Lasting Peace in the Middle East Why Couldn’t the US-Israeli War Force the Mullahs to Retreat and Surrender? Despite heavy attacks by the US and Israel since February 2026 and a global energy crisis, the Iranian regime has shown that it is fighting for survival and is not ready to surrender with its missile and proxy levers. This reality has shown the limits of purely external deterrence. Are Regional Pacts Effective? The Mecca Agreement can raise the cost of a direct invasion of Saudi Arabia, but it cannot contain the regime’s inherent warmongering. Experience has shown that defense pacts do not prevent proxy wars, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and cross-border terrorism. Irremediable Crises and the Mojtaba Khamenei Faction Today, the regime faces three simultaneous crises: economic collapse, political and social illegitimacy after nationwide uprisings, and a power struggle at the top centered o...

By Reza Hoseani The Formation of a Historic Pact in the Heart of Islam The agreement known as the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed on August 7, 2026, in the city of Mecca by Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey, and Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan. This pact creates a collective defense commitment, where an attack on any one of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. Roots of the Pact; From Bilateral to Trilateral This pact is an expansion of the strategic defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September 2025. For decades, Pakistan has provided training and technical assistance to Saudi forces, and Saudi Arabia is the largest buyer of Turkish drones. Trilateral negotiations had lasted for nearly a year. Why Mecca? Religious Unity and Political Message The choice of Mecca carries a symbolic weight of Islamic unity. The joint statement emphasizes that the pact is formed based...