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Why Iran’s Future Matters for Armenia and the South Caucasus

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  Shahrokh Tavakoli  Iran’s domestic crisis is no longer an issue confined within its borders. For Armenia and the wider South Caucasus, the question is not only what happens inside Iran, but what kind of country Iran may become and what that change could mean for its neighbors. Armenia’s geographic and economic links with Iran make this question particularly important. Iran is an important southern neighbor, a trading partner and an overland route connecting Armenia to the wider region. Prolonged political instability in Iran could therefore affect transportation, trade and economic security beyond Iran itself. The deeper problem, however, is domestic. Inflation, declining purchasing power, unemployment and widespread social dissatisfaction have developed alongside intensified arrests, severe sentences and executions. Instead of addressing the underlying causes of public discontent through structural reform, the authorities have increasingly relied on security measures and po...
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U.S.-Iran Clash: Fire Exchange, Objectives and Outcomes

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  By Reza Hoseani Abstract During the first week of September 2026, after a month of relative lull, direct military confrontation between the United States and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) erupted once again. The pattern in this latest round was familiar, but more revealing than before: while simultaneously pursuing indirect negotiations through Oman, the regime was rebuilding its radar systems and strengthening its missile positions, while also preparing to lay mines along new routes in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States responded with a limited strike on Larak Island, and the IRGC retaliated by launching attacks against bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The second round of U.S. strikes, which extensively targeted radar systems and coastal infrastructure in southern Iran, carried a clear message: Iran would not be allowed to return to its strategy of threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. 1. Military Reconstruction Under the Cover of Negotiatio...
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Iran’s future cannot be made in Washington

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  U.S. should empower the Iranian people, denying the regime regrouping time By Carla Sands – Wednesday, August 26, 2026 OPINION: For more than four decades, the regime in Tehran has fueled terrorism, destabilized the Middle East through proxy militias, pursued nuclear weapons capability and brutally oppressed its own people. Successive American administrations tried diplomacy, sanctions and accommodation. None has fundamentally altered Tehran’s behavior. By confronting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and refusing to accept the regime’s long-held assumption that it can threaten American interests without consequence, President Trump has changed the strategic landscape. Still, military action alone does not guarantee lasting political victory. The recent weakening of the regime has created a historic strategic opportunity. Continuing the maximum pressure campaign, the United States should embrace a political strategy that empowers the Iranian people, denying the regime tim...
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Intensifying U.S. Economic Pressure: Washington’s New Move Against the Mullahs’ Regime and Its Consequences

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  By Reza Hoseani Is Washington’s economic fury more effective than military warfare? An examination of the United States’ new sanctions targeting the IRGC’s financial lifelines and their impact on Iran’s explosive social environment. Amid the regime’s paralyzing deadlock between war and restraint, Washington has made its choice unmistakably clear: an all-out economic war instead of a large-scale military war. This choice is not the product of moderation. Rather, it reflects an understanding that economic pressure may be more lethal to the regime, less costly for the West, and more socially acceptable to the Iranian people than military intervention. 1. From “Maximum Pressure” to “Economic Fury”: The IRGC’s Lifelines in the Crosshairs In recent months, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has escalated economic pressure through two new initiatives. First came what has been described as Operation Economic Fury, announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He stated explicitly ...
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