By Reza Hoseani understanding signed between Masoud Pezeshkian and the US administration — and symbolically kissed the hand of its signatory — go far beyond a diplomatic position. They are a clear sign of a deepening strategic rift at the very top of the Islamic Republic’s power structure. Khatami warns that losing this opportunity will confront the regime with “strange problems.” The central question is this: Why is the so-called reformist faction clinging so desperately to this memorandum, while the Supreme Leader’s inner circle and his successor-in-waiting, Mojtaba Khamenei, are pushing back with the dismissive phrase “in principle”? 1. The Memorandum: A Concession or a Poisoned Chalice? In his remarks, Khatami presents an exaggerated picture of the memorandum, claiming: “Go and read this memorandum. It has no precedent. Since World War II, no memorandum, no document signed by a US president, has granted so many concessions to the opposing side… Nine times, the United St...
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By Reza Hoseani
Introduction: Iran’s Inflation Is No Longer a Cycle—It’s a Free Fall
For over four decades, inflation in Iran has not been a temporary problem, but a structural crisis under the mullahs’ rule. What is unfolding today has gone beyond ordinary inflation and entered a stage of economic free fall. According to the regime’s own Statistical Center, point-to-point inflation reached 31.8% in January 2025, but more recent reports from the Central Bank in July 2026 show annual inflation at 61.4% and point-to-point inflation at around 84%.
This means a worker’s monthly wage does not even cover one week of living expenses.
1. Why Are Prices Spiraling Out of Control? The root cause is not sanctions, but three deliberate policies:
a) Plundering the budget for repression and nuclear projects: A major driver of the food price surge is the currency crisis, where a huge portion of the budget, instead of importing essential goods, is spent on funding repressive apparatuses, weapons of mass destruction programs, and exporting terrorism.
b) Structural bank corruption and budget deficit: A bankrupt banking system and an unbalanced budget are the engines of money printing and thus inflation.
c) Removing subsidized currency and destroying purchasing power: The regime’s decision to cut the preferential exchange rate for importing staples, with an expected rise in the official dollar rate, will trigger a new wave of price hikes.
Iran is the only country in the world to have experienced double-digit inflation for more than four consecutive decades.
2. The People’s Table: The Main Casualty Contrary to regime propaganda, food inflation is rising faster than general inflation, directly targeting the poor and the middle class.
The numbers are shocking:
In January 2025, 25% of food items saw price increases of over 50%, with potatoes alone soaring by 103%.
According to new reports, point-to-point food inflation has reached ∼108% in rural areas and 85-90% in cities.
Daily per capita calorie intake has dropped from 2,431 calories in 2017 to 2,182 in 2021, and according to the Parliament Research Center, it is now below 2,100 calories – the global threshold for absolute poverty.
As a result, 6 out of 10 deciles of society are now below the poverty line, with only the top two deciles retaining any security. The Parliament Research Center predicts the poverty rate will rise from 15% in 2006 and 30% in 2021, to 41% in 2026 and 45.5% in 2028.
3. From Working Poor to Gig Economy: The Collapse of the Working Class A new phenomenon is the rise of the “working poor” – a full-time salary no longer covers basic household costs.
A clear example is the gig economy: the total number of registered drivers in Snapp (over 8.5 million) and Tapsi (about 1.4 million) is close to 10 million, more than 86% of whom do this as a second or third job. A full-time worker has to drive a taxi at night just to survive.
While the cost of living for a working-class family is estimated at 299.4 million Rials, the minimum wage is only 111.07 million Rials – covering just 37% of expenses.
To cover this up, the government introduced an “electronic coupon” scheme, but its budget was cut from 420 trillion Rials in 2023 to 150 trillion in 2025, and the number of beneficiaries halved from 60 million to 30 million.
4. Outlook: From Economic Protest to Political Uprising Protests over high prices quickly turn into political protests. With a 300% increase in flour prices, people shifted their slogans toward political freedom and regime overthrow.
Today’s truckers’ strike in Isfahan and other cities, driven by insurance, parts, and fuel costs, is an example of this link between economy and politics. Livelihood collapse is intensifying social pressure and fueling public rage.
Conclusion: As long as the country’s budget is spent on domestic repression and foreign adventurism, no economic solution is possible within this system. Inflation is the result of a deliberate policy to maintain power at the cost of impoverishing the nation. The solution is not reform, but fundamental change – so that national resources return to the people’s table.
About the Author Reza Hoseani has been writing on political and social developments in Iran and the Middle East for over two decades. His main focus is on strategies to contain the Iranian regime’s warmongering and to support the Iranian people’s democratic movements.
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Written by Shamsi Saadati Paris, France – On Saturday, May 17, 2025, an influential international conference convened in Paris, uniting parliamentarians and prominent political figures from a wide array of countries including the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, Malta, Switzerland, Romania, Portugal, and the Netherlands. The central theme of the gathering was the urgent need for a new, decisive international policy towards Iran, with a strong emphasis on supporting democratic change and recognizing the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) as a viable alternative to the current regime. The event served as a significant platform for global lawmakers to voice their concerns over the deteriorating human rights situation in Iran, the regime’s escalating domestic repression, its destabilizing regional activities, and its persistent pursuit of a nuclear program. A recurring call throughout the conference was for Western governments to adopt a firmer stance, including the ...
By Reza Hoseani Iran’s economic crisis is no longer just a headline — it has become part of everyday life. Skyrocketing prices, the continuous collapse of the national currency, and shrinking household purchasing power are now affecting nearly every segment of society. But an important question remains: Are these hardships truly the direct result of war and external pressure, or are they rooted in domestic economic policies and political decisions? While state media repeatedly blame regional tensions and foreign conflicts for inflation and market instability, many economists argue that the current crisis is driven far more by internal policymaking than by war itself. War as a Cover for Internal Economic Failure For years, whenever Iran’s economy entered a deeper phase of crisis, official narratives pointed to external enemies and international tensions. However, economic experts say the immediate impact of war rarely causes inflation on this scale in such a sho...
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