Iran's Gasoline Price Hike: The Regime Mired in Crisis and Terrified of the Spark of a New Uprising
By Reza Hoseani
The crisis of the gasoline price hike has once again returned to the agenda of the clerical regime’s government and parliament. A regime floundering in the quagmire of incurable crises of legitimacy, a bankrupt economy, and international isolation, has no way to finance the staggering costs of its repressive institutions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) except by reaching into the pockets of the deprived people. Yet this same regime knows well that any tampering with gasoline prices could spark an explosion of rage in a society that has nothing left to lose.
A Bankrupt Economy: IRGC Budget Preserved, Pressure on the Deprived
In the 1404 (2025-2026) budget, the share of repressive organs, the IRGC, the Basij, religious institutions, and Khamenei’s propaganda apparatus has not been reduced by a single rial. Instead, the bankrupt government of Pezeshkian has quietly begun a plan to implement a three-tier gasoline pricing system and eliminate free fuel cards at gas stations to compensate for its budget deficit.
According to Donya-e-Eqtesad, “Observations show that numerous fuel stations on the Tehran-Qom highways, citing a new order from the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, have collected all free fuel cards.” This is the regime’s perpetual tactic: shifting the economic pressure onto the shoulders of the deprived classes and hardworking drivers, while preserving the budget for plunder and repression.
As the Mojahedin’s “Sokhan-e Rooz” wrote: “The bankrupt government has no way to finance the costs of preserving the system except by reaching into the people’s pockets and taking measures such as printing money and raising gasoline prices.”
Fear of Repeating November 2019: The Regime’s Parliament Warns
The regime, however, is extremely vigilant to prevent the scenario of November 2019 (Aban 98) from repeating itself. On November 15, 2019, tripling the price of gasoline sparked a nationwide uprising in 191 cities. An uprising that, according to the regime’s own officials, saw “more than 900 locations in Iran become scenes of blood, fire, and explosion” and sent shivers down Khamenei’s spine.
Today, fear of that same spark is surging through the reactionary parliament:
On Tuesday, November 11, the reactionary parliament, with Pezeshkian present, witnessed fearful warnings about the dangers of raising gasoline prices. A day earlier, the regime’s parliament, in a statement addressed to Pezeshkian, anxiously wrote about the consequences of the “shock” of price increases: “Unfortunately, it has been heard that in addition to continuing gasoline imports, the government also intends to increase its price.” In this statement, representatives warned of the social consequences of this decision.
Another parliamentary representative, Sabeti, shouted: “Mr. Pezeshkian, you promised in the elections that you would not raise gasoline prices… Why do you want to raise gasoline prices?”
The state-run Jomhouri newspaper, recalling Khomeini’s phrase “fear from within,” warned that pressure on people’s livelihoods will create a crisis that “you will not be able to cope with.”
The regime’s theorists constantly warn that society does not have the capacity for even a very small gasoline price increase. The reason is clear: as resistance statistics show, in November 2019 “we witnessed protests in 719 locations across the country,” and in Tehran alone, in a single day, there were 147 points of clashes.
The regime is trying to postpone gasoline price hikes in some cities with a tactic of temporary retreat, but this retreat is not from a position of strength, but from fear of collapse.
Two Factions, One Common Fear: The Sinking of the System’s Ship
Today the regime is caught in a deadly duality. On one hand, the faction of Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC, to preserve its survival and prolong the shameful life of the regime even for one more day, demands further plunder of the people through gasoline price hikes. On the other hand, other factions, who also want nothing but the preservation of the system, fear a raging flood of the people and a radical uprising that, in their own words, “will sink all of their ships.”
The reality is that no escape remains for this regime. With or without a gasoline price increase, Iranian society is pregnant with an explosion.
Inevitable Fate: A Radical and Different Uprising
Iranian society, especially the rebellious youth, are awaiting an opportunity to spark the uprising. But this time, this uprising will be completely different from previous ones. It will be a radical and organized uprising that will have the capacity to resist and retaliate against the IRGC and repressive forces. The same youth who in November 2019 set fire to more than 900 gas stations and repression centers, today, in the form of Resistance Units, have gained valuable experience.
This weakened regime, which has reached the end of the line in regional, economic, and social crises, will be brought to the ground and overthrown by this uprising. This is the inevitable fate of this religious despotic regime, which, like other dictators in history, is one step away from its historical grave.
Do You See the Calm Before the Storm?
Do the international community and Western countries see the calm before the storm? A massive avalanche of protests by the Iranian people is on its way, which will bury this regime and will undoubtedly materialize.
It would be better for the countries of the world to learn from past failed experiences. Both the policy of appeasement and the illusion of a foreign war with this regime have clearly reached a dead end. The only remaining path is the third option: a massive social uprising to sweep away the religious rule and establish a pluralistic, democratic government in which peace, security, and economic prosperity are guaranteed.
About the Author
Reza Hoseani has been writing on political and social developments in Iran and the Middle East for over two decades. His main focus is on strategies to contain the Iranian regime’s warmongering and to support the Iranian people’s democratic movements.
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