Fixing the Shaky Nails of the Hereditary Caliphate to Save the Sheikh and Shah Establishment Amid Intractable Crises against the Inevitable Uprising of the Iranian People By Reza Hoseani Introduction: A Hereditary Monarchy Called Velayat The transfer of power in the Velayat-e Faqih system has always been its Achilles’ heel. Ali Khamenei, who himself ascended to Khomeini’s chair through Rafsanjani’s engineering and the elimination of Ayatollah Montazeri, is now trying to repeat the same scenario but in a familial and hereditary form. Mojtaba Khamenei, a son who grew up throughout his father’s 35-year sultanate in the security shadow of the Beit, relying on a network of eulogists, interrogators and corrupt IRGC generals, today sits as “King Mojtaba” on the throne of absolute sultanate without a single day of war record, management, or clerical legitimacy. The difference in authority between him and his father is from earth to sky. Ali Khamenei came at least with a record of preside...
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By Reza Hoseani
The Formation of a Historic Pact in the Heart of Islam The agreement known as the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed on August 7, 2026, in the city of Mecca by Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey, and Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan. This pact creates a collective defense commitment, where an attack on any one of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three.
Roots of the Pact; From Bilateral to Trilateral This pact is an expansion of the strategic defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September 2025. For decades, Pakistan has provided training and technical assistance to Saudi forces, and Saudi Arabia is the largest buyer of Turkish drones. Trilateral negotiations had lasted for nearly a year.
Why Mecca? Religious Unity and Political Message The choice of Mecca carries a symbolic weight of Islamic unity. The joint statement emphasizes that the pact is formed based on historical ties and Islamic brotherhood. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has described it as technically similar to NATO’s Article 5, while Riyadh emphasizes that this bloc is not sectarian.
Strategic, Economic, and Security Dimensions The three countries represent a unique combination of power in the Islamic world: Turkey with NATO’s second-largest army, Pakistan as the only Muslim nuclear power, and Saudi Arabia as the heart of global energy. This pact was formed in the midst of a war that began on February 28, 2026, during which Iran and its forces attacked Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.
Deterrence Power Against Threats to Refineries Its most important function for Riyadh is to create a new layer of defense beyond the U.S. security umbrella. In recent months, Tehran has repeatedly targeted Saudi civilian infrastructure and energy facilities. Now this pact is a clear warning that the next major attack could bring Pakistan and Turkey into the war as well.
Riyadh’s Vigilance and the Trilateral Encirclement of Tehran This pact demonstrates the vigilance of Saudi Arabia’s new leadership, which has realized that relying solely on Washington is not enough. For Tehran, this means facing three Muslim powers simultaneously from three directions: Turkey in the northwest, Saudi Arabia in the south, and Pakistan in the east.
Is the Absence of Jordan and Bahrain Felt? Turkish officials have said that this pact is open to other countries and can accept new members like NATO. The presence of Jordan and Bahrain, which are directly under the pressure of Iran’s proxies, could have made its Arab character more prominent, although it would have reduced its current military weight.
Testing the Pact with the Attack on Aramco Although the details of military commitments are still vague, the very existence of the pact has dramatically increased the cost of any adventure against Saudi Arabia. The question is whether Iran wants to test and challenge this pact with limited drone attacks on Aramco.
A Bridge to Part Two: Is This Pact Enough? But the main question is this: while major powers like the United States and Israel, with all their capacity, have not been able to contain the Iranian regime which is fighting for survival, can a regional pact like the Mecca Agreement bridle the mullahs? Or is the only low-cost and moral way for the West and Arabs to stand by the Iranian people for change? Follow the answer to these questions in our second article titled “Containing the Mullahs’ Warmongering in Iran; From Deterrence to Arming the People.”
Reza Hoseani is writer, analyst, expert on Iranian affairs, a human rights activist, and a defender of the rights of women, children, and political prisoners.
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